The Thompson v Huckabee debate

I’ve been in a fun sidebar debate with Winghunter over character and conservative. Winghunter doesn’t think that Huckabee is conservative and neither is McCain.

I happen to agree that there are some things that Huck has done that doesn’t follow the views of some conservatives. But instead of debating the negatives, I propose we debate the positives.

Here are some things that Huck has done:

1. Governed a Democrat state as a republican for almost 12 years (elected twice)
2. Carried out the death penalty
3. Left the state with a $1Billion surplus
4. Improved Education
5. Improved the roads (I’ve driven through the state top to bottom 6 times in the last year – I can vouch).
6. Has been pro-life his entire political career
7. Accepted Thompson’s suggestion for a ‘Lincoln-Douglas’ style debate.  Thompson declined.

What Has Thompson Done?

John McCain, the NOT ‘Very Conservative’ Vote and Mike Huckabee’s chances

John McCain has won two primaries. One in a state that is perceived as ‘Very Conservative’ and one that is perceived as ‘Independent.’

He has lost one primary in a state that typically votes democrat in the general election – Michigan.

In both wins, John McCain wins by getting the NOT ‘Very Conservative’ vote. Restated, in both wins, McCain did not win the lion’s share of the votes from people that consider themselves ‘Very Conservative.’

In New Hampshire, Romney got those votes. In SC, Huckabee gets those votes. In both states, McCain leads in all the other categories: Very Liberal, Somewhat Liberal, Moderate, Somewhat Conservative.

In both wins, Independents showed up to vote – about 19% in SC and double that in New Hampshire.

Huckabee was definitely hurt by two things in S.C. Thompson stayed in, drawing critical votes from him. And, Romney got out. Sophisticated statistical analysis would probably show that McCain picked up some of Romney votes when that happened.

I think that frames Huckabee’s opportunity. He needs 3 things to happen. He will need to continue to secure the ‘Very Conservative’ vote. He will need to get them to turnout in record numbers. AND, he will need Rudy Giuliani to compete for the NOT ‘Very Conservative’ vote.

There are still some states out there for Mike Huckabee to win: Arkansas, Missouri, possibly Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi.

I still want Huckabee to win. I know that when it comes to appointing Supreme Court Justices, he will select ones that will protect the right to life. A reminder of the importance of this is the 35th ‘anniversary’ of Roe v Wade on Tuesday.

Duncan Hunter wrote me a letter

Another man of character.

 Congressman Duncan Hunter returns to San Diego tonight,

Saturday January 19, 2008

Media Opportunity at 8:00 PM (PST)

Broadway Pier at the end of Broadway St, San Diego

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:  January 19, 2008

 

CONTACT:  Gary Becks  (619) 334-1655, garybecks@yahoo.com

San Diego, Calif. 

We started this campaign a year ago right here, in San Diego Harbor, against the backdrop of American Naval power.   We launched a campaign emphasizing a strong national defense, enforceable borders and restoring  the industrial base of America. 

Today we end this campaign.  The Nevada caucuses reflecting only 2% of the vote for me.   I ran the campaign exactly the way I wanted to, and at this point not being able to gain traction in conservative states of Nevada and South Carolina, it’s time to allow our volunteers and supporters to focus on the campaigns that remain viable.

It’s time for me to gear up for 2008’s defense bill that will be put together over the coming weeks.  There is work to be done in the areas of troop protection and new capabilities to be deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. And over the horizon, the emergence of Communist China as a military super power will require a new emphasis on U.S. capabilities in undersea warfare, space, and long range air-power. 

The best way to maintain a new era of peace is for the U.S. to remain strong.  Over the coming year I will endeavor to help craft a defense bill that meets the new security challenges.

Since our campaign began over 200,000 additional manufacturing jobs have been lost.  1.8 million jobs have left the U.S. for China.  This fracturing of the U.S. industrial base is a long term threat to America.  I hope that the remaining candidates will recognize it and address it.   As the senior Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, I will seek to address it.

Only hours ago a border patrolman was killed in the California Desert.  This tragedy emphasizes more than ever the compelling case for the completion of the border fence.   Since I wrote the bill that mandates 854 miles of double border fence only a few miles have been constructed.  Over the next year in Congress I will do everything in my power to get that fence built.  

Finally, for Lynn and me, the campaign over the last year has shown us this: America is a wonderful country.   Our people have great character and goodness, and the meeting of new friends has enriched our lives. 

The failure of our campaign to gain traction is mine and mine alone.  But we have driven the issues of national security, the border fence, the emergence of China and the need to reverse bad trade policy.   Because of that, this campaign has been very worthwhile, and for the Hunter family, a lot of fun. 

To our friends and supporters and volunteers: many thanks.  And now it’s time for me to focus on developing a 2008 defense bill that serves our troops and our nation.  

Thanks, and God Bless America.

Duncan Hunter

How Mike Huckabee Continues to influence the election

I’ve supported Mike Huckabee from the beginning because of his character.  John McCain is further from my political position.  But, I cannot question his character.  I have often written that there will not be a perfect candidate.  But, I want a candidate that I can trust.

Anyway, with Mike Huckabee weekened by South Carolina, the evangelical vote is at risk of splintering.  If the South Carolina trend holds true and McCain gets the nomination, McCain will need the evangelical vote to help him into the White House.  Evangelical leaders have never been very supportive of McCain.

McCain will need some help to bring them into the fold.  That help can come from Mike Huckabee.  This is not insignificant.  Fiscal conservatives will not vote democrat.  And they wont vote for Bloomberg either.  They will stay with the ticket.  But, the evangelicals will need some convincing.  And that is with Huckabee on the ticket.

Thompson’s S.C. numbers

Make some assumptions about where Thompson’s votes would have gone if he weren’t running.

He got 17% of the “Very Conservative” vote. Mike H. took 38% of that vote and McCain took 19%. Give that proportion to Huckabee and he comes close to pulling even.

There are many ways to split it. And I’m sure people will be pouring through the data. The fact is, in a state that should be favorable to Mike, John McCain wins with Thompson in the race and probably ties without him.
Thompson has a big decision in the next few days. Staying in hurts Mike. Getting out, changes the game once again. But, probably not enough for Mike.

McCain has ‘Big Mo’ now. Next up . . . Florida. McCain will have some problems ahead. The evangelical vote is a large block that is at risk of splintering.

I think S.Carolina has chosen the Republican nominee again. As painful as it is . . . we will start to see a race where Mike is not part of the top tier anymore. I told someone before Christmas, I expect a McCain/Huckabee ticket. It has been a wild ride. Mike is still my candidate. His message is still the right one.

We may have to be satisfied with Making Mike Huckabee the 47th Vice-President.

South Carolina results are in . . . Giuliani made it to 22%

Iowa 4%

Michigan 3%

New Hampshire 9%

South Carolina 2%

Wyoming 0%

Nevada 4%

Exit Polls

As of 8:51 PM, it appears that John McCain is going to hold onto his lead. When I look at the polling data, it seems that the independent vote is what is swinging this election.

79% of the voters today consider themselves Republican. The were split evenly between McCain and Huckabee.

19% of the voters today consider themselves Independent. They split 39% for McCain and 22% for Huckabee. Almost double.

Unless Huckabee makes a quick gain in Greenville, when it is done, I think McCain will hold onto a 3% difference between the two.

Wow. How much closer does it get. Oh Yeah – 2000 in Florida and 2004 in Ohio.