I’ve never paid this much attention to a candidate or the nomination process. I don’t really know what to expect out of Iowa. I am confident that if this was a primary, Huckabee would win – no question. Will the base show up? What will Ron Paul supporters do?
I see two scenarios. Neither involve Romney getting the nomination. He is just to fake.
First, Huckabee starts a slow snow ball tonight with a win. NH is out of the question at this point. But, Michigan is not. And it looks like S.Carolina will come along. If he gets that far, he’s likely to be playing at his own inauguration.
Second is the John McCain train. He may be able to pull this out. I haven’t followed his campaign as closely as some of the others. Frankly, I was turned off with the McCain/Kennedy bill on amnesty. He seems to have recovered (even me to a certain extent).
If you want a detailed prediction take a look at this page – they’ve built a great website that is nice to read.
Good Luck, Mike