John McCain, the NOT ‘Very Conservative’ Vote and Mike Huckabee’s chances

John McCain has won two primaries. One in a state that is perceived as ‘Very Conservative’ and one that is perceived as ‘Independent.’

He has lost one primary in a state that typically votes democrat in the general election – Michigan.

In both wins, John McCain wins by getting the NOT ‘Very Conservative’ vote. Restated, in both wins, McCain did not win the lion’s share of the votes from people that consider themselves ‘Very Conservative.’

In New Hampshire, Romney got those votes. In SC, Huckabee gets those votes. In both states, McCain leads in all the other categories: Very Liberal, Somewhat Liberal, Moderate, Somewhat Conservative.

In both wins, Independents showed up to vote – about 19% in SC and double that in New Hampshire.

Huckabee was definitely hurt by two things in S.C. Thompson stayed in, drawing critical votes from him. And, Romney got out. Sophisticated statistical analysis would probably show that McCain picked up some of Romney votes when that happened.

I think that frames Huckabee’s opportunity. He needs 3 things to happen. He will need to continue to secure the ‘Very Conservative’ vote. He will need to get them to turnout in record numbers. AND, he will need Rudy Giuliani to compete for the NOT ‘Very Conservative’ vote.

There are still some states out there for Mike Huckabee to win: Arkansas, Missouri, possibly Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi.

I still want Huckabee to win. I know that when it comes to appointing Supreme Court Justices, he will select ones that will protect the right to life. A reminder of the importance of this is the 35th ‘anniversary’ of Roe v Wade on Tuesday.

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3 Responses to John McCain, the NOT ‘Very Conservative’ Vote and Mike Huckabee’s chances

  1. Winghunter says:

    You’re definitely correct, McCain is a Liberal with a capital ‘L’.

    However, so is the Huckster but, don’t take my word for it;

    Candidate Research – Know Who You’re Voting For ( The Easy Way ) http://tinyurl.com/2sowta

  2. fortyfour says:

    I’m curious who you think the conservative candidate is.

    It’s not Giuliani – 2nd ammendment, abortion, gay marriage.

    It’s not Romney – I don’t own a gun, I’ve been twice, but I’m a hunter, a convenient ‘virtual’ conversion to anti-abortion, admittedly he didn’t raise ‘taxes’ but he did raise fees (read big diff), left the state in a deficit, and probably would not have been reelected.

    Who’s left? Ron Paul? Definitely the conservative libertarian. I have voted for him. He’s great a great representative. But, will make a lousy president.

  3. fortyfour says:

    I see your picture in the sidebar – you’d pass for Thompson’s twin.

    So, Thompson may have a conservative voting record. But, what organization has he been the decision maker? If you tell me he was the DA, I know you won’t tell me that qualifies him run the most powerful nation in the world. He was 1 of 100 and only voted.

    As for his character, he consulted for a pro-abortion organization.

    Dr. Ron Paul never performed an abortion and told the patients that wanted one that they should find a new doctor. Principles should always be more important than making a living.

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