John McCain has won two primaries. One in a state that is perceived as ‘Very Conservative’ and one that is perceived as ‘Independent.’
He has lost one primary in a state that typically votes democrat in the general election – Michigan.
In both wins, John McCain wins by getting the NOT ‘Very Conservative’ vote. Restated, in both wins, McCain did not win the lion’s share of the votes from people that consider themselves ‘Very Conservative.’
In New Hampshire, Romney got those votes. In SC, Huckabee gets those votes. In both states, McCain leads in all the other categories: Very Liberal, Somewhat Liberal, Moderate, Somewhat Conservative.
In both wins, Independents showed up to vote – about 19% in SC and double that in New Hampshire.
Huckabee was definitely hurt by two things in S.C. Thompson stayed in, drawing critical votes from him. And, Romney got out. Sophisticated statistical analysis would probably show that McCain picked up some of Romney votes when that happened.
I think that frames Huckabee’s opportunity. He needs 3 things to happen. He will need to continue to secure the ‘Very Conservative’ vote. He will need to get them to turnout in record numbers. AND, he will need Rudy Giuliani to compete for the NOT ‘Very Conservative’ vote.
There are still some states out there for Mike Huckabee to win: Arkansas, Missouri, possibly Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi.
I still want Huckabee to win. I know that when it comes to appointing Supreme Court Justices, he will select ones that will protect the right to life. A reminder of the importance of this is the 35th ‘anniversary’ of Roe v Wade on Tuesday.