Make some assumptions about where Thompson’s votes would have gone if he weren’t running.
He got 17% of the “Very Conservative” vote. Mike H. took 38% of that vote and McCain took 19%. Give that proportion to Huckabee and he comes close to pulling even.
There are many ways to split it. And I’m sure people will be pouring through the data. The fact is, in a state that should be favorable to Mike, John McCain wins with Thompson in the race and probably ties without him.
Thompson has a big decision in the next few days. Staying in hurts Mike. Getting out, changes the game once again. But, probably not enough for Mike.
McCain has ‘Big Mo’ now. Next up . . . Florida. McCain will have some problems ahead. The evangelical vote is a large block that is at risk of splintering.
I think S.Carolina has chosen the Republican nominee again. As painful as it is . . . we will start to see a race where Mike is not part of the top tier anymore. I told someone before Christmas, I expect a McCain/Huckabee ticket. It has been a wild ride. Mike is still my candidate. His message is still the right one.
We may have to be satisfied with Making Mike Huckabee the 47th Vice-President.